Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Sunday, June 3, 2012

After Hearing about The Romney Economic Policy.

Media Photo
Mr. Glen Hubbard, obviously a Ph.D., was on the television today at CNN in the role of Mr. Romney’s chief economic advisor or spokesman at this point.  Several salient issues arose during his talk with the blogger / commentator Mr. Zakaria including the deficit and insurance woes that have been badgering candidates for a long time, including Mr. Obama, the current U.S. president.  Mr. Hubbard, in speaking about the budget issues delivered an excellent essay on the difficulties of carrying on as the society with the most civic, political and other freedoms anywhere, and his presentation appeared to be a kind of “you don’t get something for nothing” type trial balloon.  Sometimes indeed in the process of electing officials, the voters can be handed, and for various reasons, nothing for something, in which case there is much negative clamouring and scandal.  It does appear from his spokesman the Romney campaign wants to work out its promises to the American people without being unrealistic.  These were some of the issues Mr. Hubbard fielded this morning, and without claiming to analyze whatsoever the process of lightening the budget load, his explanation turned on revenue collection or spending reductions.  Depending upon what the people want, the candidate appears to be listening to how people want to approach austerity measures:  Through “cutbacks,” “budget controls,” “constraints,” and the like, or “new revenue,” and / or revenue collection.  The actual plan might be a combination of both, which would do something to eliminate widespread use of loopholes and weak points in both budgeting and tax policy.  The substance of the interview consisted of Mr. Hubbard presenting this, but not necessarily presenting anything beyond overall policy definitions, and the viewer was left with likes or dislikes as the case might be, along with policy and party choice as well. 

There is another issue, and that is unless any budgetary policy or tax policy is successful, mostly as a surprise or some overriding spontaneity, what will the U.S. populace do given the risk to public finances upon even at first the examination of policies as successes or failures?  There’s no answer to this, and while in the olden days, one Republican president instituted wage and price controls to accomplish monetary and fiscal goals alike, and this under a policy that was publicly unfavourable, it does appear such unusual approaches to the budget and trade, and the federal revenue issue, need be considered.  The wage and price controls were a palliative, but woke up a lot of people to attention about where the public finances of the U.S. were headed at the time.  By this writing, the author can not mention the advantage of budgetary controls over tax reform, nor vice versa, though these are not exclusive and maybe some policy – maker could determine some arithmetic identity without the present and ubiquitous gallows humour on these topics, and that would give any federal administration some hope of having an actual fiscal / monetary goal to accomplish apart from the abysmal picture some economists paint of public affairs and money these days.  That any such goal would be attainable in terms of federal finances will remain to be seen, and there are many pessimists about the current, related metrics as recorded, not to mention the prospective ones.  Austerity measures were mentioned in the talk on television today, and all forbid the U.S. having a reaction to austerity policies, either formally at election time or in the street, if they are indeed needed at this time.

Another topic at the talk with Fareed Zakaria was national health insurance and the compulsory provisions of this policy concerning coverage, and for which the president is being sued by the Catholic Church given certain provisions.  People like me know that the actual insurance problem as it is approached by policy – makers is quite intractable as there is only so much insurance that can go around.  People believe that their insurance is a kind of financial instrument at times and treat health insurance exploitatively as such on many occasions, and this is a sin.  Health insurance has to be paid for, unfortunately for everyone, and this financial issue and the role of health care in the U.S. economy really make such issues the subject of extreme opinions and educated and technical debates and discussions alike.  The idea of the Massachusetts health care system was discussed as portable to the entire country, and Mr. Hubbard suggested it is not – indeed the demographics (an important health care parameter, even determinative of actuarial and other aspects of insurance plans) of a state like Massachusetts are obviously dissimilar to those of West Virginia or Florida; and one can not bolt a standard from a Massachusetts public health plan onto California or Idaho, either.  This is what makes solutions to such issues incredibly difficult and the subject of adversities, including economic and social ones, business and cultural, etc.  One idea that has not been greatly discussed, at least not publicly, is a national public health system as an auxiliary to private care with pay – as – you – go and / or insurance coverage itself with a deductible or co – payment.  Such a system could be self – financing and profitable for the government and would stratify, equalize and reduce the financial burden of any federal system.  MediCare for older U.S. citizens is an example of such a system as weighted towards federal oversight, though any new system might be a health care / maintenance auxiliary to private insurance concerns.  By this writing, the author is surprised this was not discussed with regard to either the Massachusetts plan or the required health insurance as currently promoted by the president.  Without sounding litigious, Catholics because they have values accruing to very technical issues about women’s rights, women’s right to choose and decide, and abortion itself, and other issues that would be addressed by an umbrella federal health plan, do have, and I mention informally here, an argument with the law.  Catholic bishops and perhaps even the pope would do well to provide some decisive guidance here, and as of yet I have heard none.  Also, and as an endnote, neither Zakaria nor Hubbard brought up any economics argument or policy about what to do with trade.  This probably means both parties are in agreement about some policy as already implemented and will not contest each other on these grounds so far (maybe both main presidential candidates admire and accept the current status quo on trade and will just discuss this secondarily in any debate.)  The trade issue as examined by anyone at this point has to do with long – term labour productivity and benefits and the level they are at today.  Developed and developing economies that apparently have more productive labour forces also have less history in them on contests for higher wages and management changes in the modern sense.  This is why the so – called productivity statistics could be questioned – other countries are less in – touch with modernity than the U.S. is at this point (hush,) and any focusing on the labour market only in economic policies in Western economies causes things like prices, interest rates, bank and other rates, including growth rates and productivity measures themselves to first gather and then integrate improper bias that skews and could ruin business – this would be uncalled – for under the circumstances.

Please pardon typhographical errors.  THS 

Saturday, April 14, 2012

What the U.S. Can Learn from China, by Ann Lee - Book Review.

Media Photo
Ms. Lee, who is a gifted college professor, chose 2012 for the publication of this text that might have been more timely two or so years ago, despite a cogent assessment of current economic conditions in P.R.C. as greatly improved and characterised by multiple commercial successes, especially in view of the economic health of China as illustrated in 2008 going forward.  Ms. Lee first speaks in this book about her many contacts in P.R.C., and through her experiences in academia and other pursuits, including her career in securities trading, that America develop more trust, integrity, better emphasis on education, re - write some of its more outlandish laws, re - build its infrastructure, focus on competitiveness - all this in realizing her future potential.  Further, Ms. Lee indicates China now has more of everything than most any world power at this point - more college grads, more billionaires, automobiles, and companies, in addition to its expanding G.D.P. that currently is at 8.225 trillion U.S. dollars. 
China is nonetheless still an emerging market country, and a source of cheap labour where people are flocking to the cities and where agriculture, the heart of the Cultural Revolution some time ago, has given way to other business activities.  Ms. Lee notes the dictates of the grossly - indebted western powers to the emerging markets have mostly been destructive due to things like an Oriental high regard for education and its emphasis on Confucian thought.  The western powers themselves apparently have financial troubles at this point due to immoral business practices, wealth inequalities, and inappropriate emphasis away from things like proper education / pedagogy and fair pay for a day's work.  There are no guarantees in the world of democracy, but America has a long - standing waning of people participating in democracy itself through exercising their right to vote, and a waning itself of values on education and equalities.  The U.S., apparently to Ms. Lee with respect to China is more like a plutocracy and / or an Alice in Wonderland.
As a response to the lack of success of the Cultural Revolution, the leadership in China has classically re - interpreted its lessons to place its legacy today on uniting the party to serve the Chinese people.  This has the effect of making Chinese leaders more proactive and a view in the Orient of democracy as a tainted system at present.  "Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics" in this text is a form of that system as helped by the state in calling for labour's drive to succeed and watching over the state and the enterprise, where decisions are centrally controlled and the people have a comprehensive business strategy including central planning.  The closest thing to the Five - year Plan in China in the U.S. is apparently named as the federal budget process, and this process apparently suffers from, as do some other areas of the U.S. economy according to Ms. Lee, "short - termism," or myopia - the hedge funds that ballooned during the 2000's and then later had difficulties staying afloat are used to illustrate this. 
Operating a business in the P.R.C. is referred to in the text as "Swimming with the Sharks," given the overall enormous success of the innovative enterprise zones and state - owned enterprises, that she incidentally suggests might be a good recipe for the U.S.  Other difficulties are suggested concerning the American economy, including the manipulative villains who run some financial centers, lobbies and so forth.  The commercial approach of China to Africa and Latin America is discussed as a successful "win - win" model of business development.  In this narrative, only Israel, U.K. and Canada are supposed to be friends with the U.S., not too rosy a picture.  The U.S. on the other hand is supposed to have excellent societal traits such as its sales people, a strong dollar, evident public cynicism, and the glamour of the media.  Ms. Lee suggests goals currently being pursued in P.R.C. in the area of macroeconomics including eradicating hunger, increasing the wages of the working class, and avoiding tragedies such as that currently in the Sudan.  She calls upon the growth models as preached by Soros, Rogoff, Summers, and Zoellick; including the consideration of a single global currency, and more effective use of S.D.R.'s.  She also acknowledges China's sketchy human rights record and Nobel Prize winner Liu Xiao bo, ominous military developments in both the U.S. and China, and other politics of ascendancy.  The text goes on to caution the reader about stagnation in China despite a bright and just future.