A New Book from Mr. Alan Greenspan - A Continued Dialogue with Young People Everywhere.

Media photo

In his latest text as published for the commonweal (click here for "New York Times" review,) Mr. Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve System in the U.S., notably under the great national economic boom that took place during the years mostly of the Clinton presidency, talks about his various points of view on the new economy and his old metier - forecasting.  In a radio interview published over PBS airwaves a few days ago, he spoke about the major themes in his latest book including the "new" economy in the U.S., the presently (from decades ago) applicable economic theories of Joseph Schumpeter (with which the writer here does not overall agree as to their current popular and trumpeted application to current U.S. and international economic climes,) and the salient topics of things like the aging of the principal working population in the U.S. right now and productivity of the workforce here.  He also discussed somewhat and in quite slow and clear language the issues of Medicare, unemployment and the federal budget.  With respect to this, it might be necessary to recall his previous work in a 2007 publication, The Age of Turbulence, of which the following:

a.  His brief account of living in New York, his training and how he became involved in policy - making, industry, and banking, etc., as an economist and consultant, and then as an official.
b.  The "New World" of economics and self - correcting character of the U.S. capitalist system; the nature of the challenges of the nebulous character of world commerce and economics today and its related changes vis - a - vis the past.
c.  The end of the Cold War as a continuing salient issue in economics and its effects, including the 1998 Russian financial crisis, the currency crises in Asia during the late 1990's, and the movement of the national economy in PRC from a non - market economy to a managed one.  One might also note the related effects of the end of the Cold War on developing countries everywhere.  One also needs remember with respect to these the budgetary surplus in the U.S. at the time that was so un - characteristic of any federal regime here in years (since 1969,) and that in 1998 petroleum sold at one time as low as $ 11 per barrel.  Note as well Wall Street considerations at that time, including the default and failure of Long Term Capital Management.
d.  The keystones of "Clintonomics" as emphasizing competitive markets and the rule of law in addition to other themes including entrepreneurship and business optimism.
e.  Recent history of the development and primacy of applied mathematics and statistics to the social sciences and their related acceptance and greater use in the various economics clubs of the world to which Mr. Greenspan belonged and belongs.
f.  Continued importance, especially in view of concerns for global climate, of the study of efficiency, technology, environment friendliness and labor issues in heavy industry.
g.  Recent history of interest rates and FOMC conduct.
h.  NAFTA and other trade agreements with near countries, and trade agreements and the flux in economic and political relations with the great powers.
i.  The arrival of the internet / world wide web and the invocation and an applicable interpretation of Schumpter's theories of "creative destruction."
j.  The stock market boom during the 1990's and into the 2000's.
k.  The overall and pervading mood of uncertainty in the "New World Economy" at present and dangers of inflation, the collapse of Social Security in the U.S., possibly the dangerous collapse of the social net in the U.S. in the future as a result of gaffes by officials, the promise of slower future economic growth and continued and more acute and unnecessary legalism and litigiousness of American society.
l.  Increasing dangers of increased populism in American politics and policy - making and the dangers of current economic policies in inviting more deficit spending, inflation and currency devaluation.
m.  The renewed importance of international financial centers such as London and others, and the necessity of nations to improve their employment situations and the country's social net.

In the details and in your reading of the 2007 Greenspan text, there is yet another world of topics, themes, items and issues to read of that affect your and everyone's finances and standard of living, employment situation and other features of living in the U.S. and what it means to be American.  Mr. Greenspan probably reluctantly repeats some of this message in his new book as in the last one his voice might not have been heard in important spheres.  The 2007 text as examining the topics above as well as other very urgent and important ones affecting urban and country settings in the U.S. right now, in background and actual perusal make excellent material for what must be his outstanding new book.

Another Way to Look at China's Growth Besides Just from "Retail."

Media photo

While it is obviously true P.R.C. produces a good amount of the world’s manufactured goods, and a good percentage overall of those are produced not only in P.R.C., but have a history of increasing importance in such places as Singapore, the Pacific island countries, Australia, Japan, T’ai wan, South Korea and the region of Southeast Asia and South Asia – the lot of them.  But what makes P.R.C. so important in its own right, with still its relatively low standard of living outside the urban centers after all these years, as a producer and exporter of goods to the U.S. and Western Europe and other presumably wealthy parts of the world?  While P.R.C. holds maybe a little over a trillion U.S. dollars in the bills, notes and bonds issued by the U.S., it also has a very large population, now much over the billion threshold as reached some time ago.  This means P.R.C. indirectly has financed its economic scale and demographic scope through making the decision some time ago to develop major business and commercial ties with the U.S. – the post – Cold War unipolar superpower.  Also, while for P.R.C. as a country from the Third World bounding over into the First World to the extent it fulfills its political and economic mission of transition from a country emphasizing industrialization and renewed centrism overall, there are a small number of major inputs that contribute to the future economic prospects of the country; not of the P.R.C. administration, but of the economic activity in the country apart from government, including continuing to invest at least some of its current account surplus (not all can do that), conducting more reasonable and goal – oriented what we would call open market operations, increasing the scope of the social net at home, especially for aging workers; getting beyond the fluff of places like Shang hai and Bei jing to manage better its intake of foreign direct investment, and then under the guise of what it calls “Chinese characteristics” and a newer doctrine of its administration under the “Represents”, carrying on the business of actively managing its industrial and commercial base, and then economy overall without the ordinary corruption and parasitism that characterizes some growing economies these days. 

P.R.C. might indeed show a much greater percentage G.N.P. growth than, mention France at this point that might be one percent.  The recent estimates of Chinese economists about the sustained growth over eight or nine percent gross of that country’s economy as a whole does take into account the reports and numbers that are submitted to the center, though it does not quantify the actual numbers of what must be the shadow economy in the country that might be yet another significant source of growth, however illicit, to again enrich those who are merchandising unofficial stoves, televisions, handbags, and other goods and contraband at this point.  In the former soviet union, for example, during glasnost, the shadow economy might have been as great as forty percent of the Russian gross national product at that point, and this gives reason for much of the exclusive and private wealth the oligarchs concentrated to themselves at the time (Boris Yeltsin is criticized for having allowed this and even encouraged it though future studies will probably show this vicious process was a Russian version of hastening the arrival of capitalism in the country.)  The grey economy in P.R.C. at this point might be greater than that in Russia in gross terms because in China right now there are more people who need things, especially the aging worker population, and who have ways of raising the cash out of their life’s savings and so forth to put into the consumer economy – this is and has been a source of unofficial and substantive internal commercial growth for their economy since the time of Deng Xiao ping, and the thinking behind it as it touched upon the issues of young people there could have touched off some of the issues of 1989 that resulted in the administrations reactionary measures at the time.  Rest assured that China’s economy being the way it is, and with room to grow in the area of consumer and durable goods, the grey economy has given the country a somewhat easy and unofficial way to deliver on its economic promises internally over the years.  Time will tell if this and related activities actually enriches anyone and by whom it will be easy to see who the responsible people are for it, be they resellers, middlemen, or some type of ‘oligarch’ as has arisen in their neighbor to the West. 

While the Chinese over the years, not unlike the former U.S.S.R., have chased bad investments in the name of entrepreneurship that sometimes have caused financial and other reorganisations, it is possible that the current limits to growth as a macroeconomic issue will call for less official trade inside the country due to slack in world consumerism and in its financial markets as well.  This will be a good thing for anyone who has a lousy economy and who’s lending things to finance growth, and it might be difficult for example, for France in the next few years to have G.N.P. growth that even equals its inflation rate; so France might want to return to the financial well in P.R.C. consistently as long as China continues to purchase its bonds and export goods there.  Remember that debt is not property nor is it a proxy for property and those in the French “patrimoine” stand in line as stakeholders in any problem with its bonds before the debtholders do.  The rights of debtors and bondholders when in dispute can get quite technical, though it is clear that no matter how much of France’s debt bought by the Chinese, France will always be free of any specious claims on its assets or national treasures due to the character of its own open market operations and its international rights as a debtor.  Outside the P.R.C., international trade rules, and this despite the slackening of some trade at this point in recent reports, maintain the status quo as far as practices and the production of goods and services in exchange for moneys are concerned.  P.R.C. might be greatly concerned by slackening trade as it’s a major producer of goods at this point, but trumpeting the day – to – day problems of this is a way of calling undue attention to oneself, and while there are ups and downs every day, one has to wonder at the same time what the daily figures are highlighted for unless there are some practices driving the trade and commerce from P.R.C. that are questionable.  Ordinary economic systems, capitalism being one of them, have very wisely built in features to absorb the everyday chaos of the marketplace and those angered or upset by ordinary ups and downs might be judged to not being able to see beyond their noses.  These days, so many merchants and traders everywhere are concerned with quick scoring due to an incorrect sensation that’s how money is made these days – by a kind of high – pressure cooker tactics – based business climate.  This is only so true as ordinary people want a basic standard of living, to have a place on the food chain and the like – this is the same in every country with wise leaders or fools alike at the helm.  The current concerns about China as an economic engine that’s slackening are frightful to “Chicken Little” and because most of the world has market – psychology – based trade these days (they count what’s in their pocket books at the end of the day and decide if they’ve fared well or poorly, etc.,) it’s important that daily and monthly indicators (markets and CPI aside, maybe) be given time to return to their general patterns. 

Related Becker – Posner Blog postings on the subject.

Monsoon / Cyclone Season Again.

About cyclones from Japan meteorological site - click here.

Latest cyclone news from Bloomberg.

"IRIN" news about cyclones.

About monsoons / cyclones - click here.

Media Photo

In Reaction to The Puppetry: They Wanted The U.S. of A.

Resources from this blog:  Click here.

Media Photo

Media Photo

Anna Politkovskaya.

Media Photo

Google Search Resources:  Click here.

Search engine resources - this blog.

Again - Memories of October 1962.

Media Photo

Many people do remember this time in 1962 as one of mutual concern, not just among those in the same town, but between the different members of the "global village," and today even among those having read just historical accounts.  See this link for subject matter resources and previous blog entry from last year.

More on The NSU Trial in Germany.

That this particular legal proceeding is the most significant dealing with the far - right in Germany in years, and has been cause for great concern within FRG itself, it is not a huge subject of discussion nor real awareness outside that cultural and territorial surrounding.  The crimes allegedly associated with the NSU ("National Socialist Underground") in their relative insignificance and in their overall morbidity are cause for concern not just in Germany, but in any country or region where there are individuals who are part of a system and who take advantage of this for their own ends or in order to otherwise and inappropriately take part in the sinister and dark, immorally punishing and even criminal world in order to bring attention to their personal politics.  It is perhaps true, and there might even be a history of the NSU and related parties, that politically oriented people within a system like the democratic FRG, though they are not reasonably able to have a majority voice as, i.e., the politics of the nazis are disproven everywhere, resort to various tactics and vile and violent acts as the NSU apparently has.  This is symptom of the cultural psychosis of anyone or any group condoning the crime of assassination and elimination of people as an allowable act under the circumstances the NSU might present to anyone.

In knowing in any detail about the mission of the NSU, it might be difficult to consider loving one's neighbor as oneself, inasmuch as one is not able even a little to trust one's neighbor.  In the free country of the FRG, an excellent place, even the state chancellor is challenged when attempting to reply to questions and comments about the situation in the former Eastern Germany and its effects on people today, more specifically in the area of origin for the NSU that has been on the fringes socially, culturally, economically and in many other ways since the downfall of communism in 1989 - 1990.  The political environment in the area of origin for the NSU is characteristically rife with ideas and attitudes that leave people grasping at straws about their own lives and in all quite angry and frustrated with things in the world, especially concerning influences that are non - German or that are from the outside.  Remember if one judges the NSU outside of this particular proceeding that one can not just lay one's hands, proverbially, metaphorically nor otherwise on such problems as a way of resolving them and their effects.  The circumstances of any showing of anti - Semitism or like idea today, in the world as we now have it with the related extremely mortal conflicts behind us, are quite special and individualized and despite the reality of this subculture of anger and awfully willful violence, there is through the humaneness with which the defendant at trial is treated in the Münich Higher Regional Court and that city's Stadelheim prison a comprehension of the conflict(s) people have experienced since the defeat of communism and official laying - to - rest of many far right influences in Germany itself.  The case of Germany with respect to such issues is in itself extremely specific and special, and requires considerable and reasonable study in order to have any level of understanding of it.  A good number of the answers to dilemmas proposed by the Bäder Meinhof in days gone by and the NSU today are the internal affairs of the country itself; to insist otherwise and to broadly apply these are nonsense and in denial of the watchful and ordinary conscience.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10263998/German-neo-Nazi-trial-gives-insight-into-secret-life-of-Beate-Zschape.html - hyperlink to "Telegraph" (U.K.) article, September 2013.  

Les relations extérieures à la télé, ... .

Lettre publique destinée à la droite en France - 

Cher Monsieur ou Madame Représentant de l’U.M.P. :

Photo Média

A l’occasion de regarder le « PBS » aux EE.UU. aujourd’hui pendant l’heure de l’émission « Charlie Rose », programme télévisé d’interview et des évènements courants à présent, j’ai bien vu votre ministre [français] des affaires étrangères, Laurent Fabius, ancien pilote d’avion de chasse, en parlant avec M. Charlie Rose sur le sujet de la politique de la crise au Moyen Orient et surtout au sujet des circonstances pour les rebelles et les challenges sur le gouvernement syrien en faisant face a.  à la politique et les conflits de guerre civile, b.  l’emploi du gaz [] sur le point des missiles envoyées aux faubourgs de Damas, et c.  au dialogue international sur les liens entre l’état des affaires actuellement en Syrie, la politique étrangère de la Russie et les efforts nucléaires d’Iran, Syrie et leurs voisins dans la région.

La parole de M. Fabius était formidable et est à suivre peut – être pour les raisons suivantes :  M. Fabius dans son fondement et formation voit bien les perçus et attitudes, ambitions et la volonté de l’arabe sous Islam – ce qui est une pointe de repère pour la politique socialiste influente dans votre région.  Egalement, il cautionne fortement un jugement sur la politique syrienne en tant qu’encore soumettant aux souhaits Russes, Iraniens, et autres en place au débat aux Nations Unies, même de la Chine, les pays de l’Afrique et autres états non – alignés à l’assemblée de l’O.N.U. M. Fabius fortement et de plusieurs côtés ait mentionné son rôle dans la conduite et la volume du débat, et le rôle en même temps du gouvernement en France en offrant des avis à faciliter une solution à ces problèmes extrêmement complexes une fois examinés les courants de l’histoire quoique récente [en] la Syrie, et du « printemps arabe ».  Son point de vue, bien entendu dans le raisonnement des socialistes dans votre pays, est exprimé dans une parole qui souffre d’un analyse de base sous - détaillé aussi bien d’une hauteur qui ait montré de nouveau les détails de la pensée vivement exprimée de son ancien chef François Mitterrand qui n'ignorait souvent que « l’Internationale » dans ses pratiques et pensées.

Celles - ci pourraient être comprises autant perspicaces par les socialistes en France que dangereuses par les adhérents aux autres coins de la politique en le pays dans le sens que M. Mitterrand fût pendant l’époque très arrogant en son pouvoir exercé au niveau de ces grandes lignes, une fois donné la politique du pétrole, des terroristes dans la région et partout, des idées globales de l’Islam et autres coins idéologiques et dogmatiques sur l’échelle en réaction à la pensée, moralité, même la façon de vivre des français et françaises.  Ici compris est le hasard du parler familier dans les interviews à l’étranger par les hommes politiques socialistes de la France qui sont souvent coupables d’utiliser la presse et les médias à l’étranger en tant que labo pour leurs idées faisant appel à leur point de vue mondiale.  Laurent Fabius est un homme brave et formidable dans son attitude pratique et son usage du langage de la politique, et même encore en le cas qu’il conduit son avion de chasse ; mais les idées délicates et susceptibles, et sensibles de la guerre en Syrie, celles des armes très destructrices y utilisées contre les rebelles et maquis, et les courants idéologiques dans le voisinage ne doivent pas être sujets ni au niveau de l’expérimentation verbale ni aux regards en arrière vers les pouvoirs de gauche du passé n’ayant pas été capable à résoudre ces difficultés ni pour les français ni pour les autres.  Les socialistes en France continuent à chercher des richesses et l’influence partout en commandant une sorte de dictature de la pensée selon l’ancienne - nouvelle politique de Mitterrand qui se soulève à l’occasion d’un appel de la gauche en France.  La populace doit regarder sur ses caractères, et au – dessus de tout de la gauche à ce sujet, dans les débats politiques à Paris et en province, et dans le pays partout.  Je vous prie de pardonner les fautes stylistiques et d’orthographe ici et vous souhaite tout le bien pour le présent et le l’avenir.

Avec mes meilleurs aveux,

THS

Californie, EE.UU.

Remembering the Washington, D.C., Naval Yard Incident of September 16, 2013.

Photo Gallery (Aftermath) - Washington Post.

Blog Article - New York Times.

Shang hai - symbol of success of the 'three represents' - belated book review.

The Man Who Changed China:   The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin, by Robert Lawrence Kuhn, Crown Books 2004.

Media Photo

By the “Three Represents”, now in the lexicon of Chinese political thought and part of what the P.R.C. constitution preaches at this point, Jiang Zemin, leader of China during much of the Clinton and Bush years in the U.S., provided for P.R.C. pride and Chinese patriotism in his wording of a renewed emphasis on Marxist – Leninist thought, the dogma of Mao Zedong, and additionally Deng Xiao ping political / economic theory.  While the rise of Shang hai as a provincial and commercial capitol in the P.R.C. was important for that country and coincided with the rise of Mr. Jiang (a former mayor of the city of Shang hai) who became the president of the P.R.C.  These primary principles of political and ideological theory as espoused by Mr. Jiang in practice dealt with agenda items like modernizing the military on the mainland, modernizing political and administrative services processes and practices in P.R.C., and an effort to fight corruption in upholding age – old values of the “rule of law” and a spirit of “virtue” that have a long history in Asia under a Confucian tradition and other traditions on the mainland that recall the great historical legacy and rear view the administration has had after the events of Tian An men in 1989 when Mr. Jiang was a general secretary.  Also included in any implementation of Mr. Jiang’s primary political theory were efforts to reform state – owned enterprises (SOE’s), and revamp the P.R.C. financial sector and rural economy, and the overall increasingly successful effort in itself of the Chinese asserting themselves in the world. 

The commercial and business economy of the P.R.C. as of 1989 was still a “planned” economy, though the agenda items of Mr. Jiang obviously, with their rightist tendencies that had become more admissible at the time, facilitated more market – based activities in the country and in areas of P.R.C. influence politically and economically.  This Mr. Jiang called “advancing through the times”, and I believe my quotes are not out of context here, in validation of the socialist market economy on the mainland, domestic and international, in a kind of “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”.  Mr. Jiang, as a trained social scientist and natural scientist made all personal and professional efforts to revitalize the country primarily through simple re – emphasis and validation, again, of science and education, and this without interfering with the overall workings of the country’s establishment, especially the scientific one there.  This was accomplished somewhat by sending young Chinese scientists to the U.S. to pursue college and university educations (in 2002 over 60,000 students of whom more than 50,000 returned home at the end of their educational terms).  Mr. Jiang, despite being a scientist and engineering type, among the elite in his own state, in his public emphasis upon bringing up the country using his own methods, called for, validated and greatly lauded achievements among the greater populace in carrying out his principles and their practices.  

The time of Mr. Jiang as president of P.R.C. saw pretty much the end of “state means of production” and “dictatorship of the proletariat” as well, though not primarily so, the “each according to his ability and each according to his need” – type civic governance so ridden with vice and corruption as it had been for years on the mainland, and ridden as well with other discouraging tendencies emphasizing the class struggle.  These new principles in practice also meant the end of the overall leviathan power of industrial development and a new primacy recognizing the information age.  In this, Mr. Jiang demonstrated missionary and fanatical zeal, especially concerning the outdated workings of the communist party and how masses of people were treated by the system on the mainland.  These extremely successful efforts, probably the result of many other reforms besides the three basic principles above, and much more administrative and other work than meets the eye here, are reified in what many see today, citizens and tourists alike in P.R.C., as the achievements of the rebuilding, renewal and modernization of the city of Shang hai without interference or any cancelling out of influences of places in P.R.C. like Nan jing, Hong Kong, Guan dong, Bei jing and so forth. 

It is also very important to know that the “Three Represents” comprise not just old and simple ideas as dressed up for modernity.  These principles are communist ideas made to address new concerns of Marxist – Leninist ideology in advancing the productivity, status and dynamism and building up of a material civilization of this managed economy (no longer referred to, for example, as a non – market economy).  The obverse of the Cultural Revolution, intended at the time to discourage intellectuals, these three new edicts call upon innovators, entrepreneurs, and intellectuals now in the vanguard of a “new society” as primary sources for building up the country.  The text goes into considerable detail about how the implementation of these principles worked and much of the language behind them, especially the new de – emphasis of the party role vis – a – vis the masses (primarily industrial workers and farmers), that encompasses the party and the populace on all levels.  Much of this new doctrine was criticized in P.R.C. from the left as ideological ‘pollution’, and as a result was only really established as Mr. Jiang recently left office.  The movement itself is encapsulated in five primary public speeches by Mr. Jiang during the time 1978 – 2001 that illustrated the objectives of controlled political reform while preventing dissension and disagreement, repression and so on, especially again after Tian An men.  Reforms were founded on a basis of enlisting socio – economic stability among the populace and for example, discouraging anti – capitalist (read “anti – U.S.”) attitudes, the greatest good for the greatest number, and a vision of success for all stakeholders – these factors all despite the absence of democracy.  Considering the international public’s view of the success of newly – redeveloped Shang hai and related places, the achievements of the 2008 Olympics, successes in the war against terrorism, and acceptance worldwide of the new dogma; the efforts at reform have been even more successful with the country’s communist party that while it now cannot control everything allows some small non – communist political activities and party organisations, cooperation of non – communists and NGO’s with the party, and the new rise of the C.P.C. as a model guarantor of the state’s integrity, leadership strength and other attributes, Chinese nationalism, and new Marxist thought of which former soviet influences and followings.  The three principles are said to have modernized the party, economics of the country, while retaining the traditional communist goals, structures and social rules that have been in place for more than a generation. 

This was brought about by an emphasis upon youth and renewal, and new colleagial and consensus – building administrative guidelines.  Those carrying out these efforts have presumably been part of the “inner party” of educated, talented, and sophisticated, dedicated elite acting against corruption and with a transitory character according to the modern realities of communism.  With the legacy of Deng Xiao ping theory it has been very difficult to assure or re – establish social stability after the events of 1989, though Mr. Jiang is said to have provided the country with consistent reform efforts featuring his executive, engineering and leadership qualities:  For Mr. Jiang, if you will, a sort of combination or cross between Beethoven and Shakespeare.  Things might nonetheless have been like the old Phoenix Cardinals playing the Houston Oilers in the day, but this series of coup reforms by Mr. Jiang was quite successful and extremely popular at the same time as based on intellectual and patriotic ideas and the power of same in efforts as well to dispel income disparities, master world macro – economics and inflation and fight corruption, over – taxation and unemployment.  The language used in the book mirrors the language about economics in the Western press and speaks authoritatively thereby, and by this calling for the old adage “trust but find fairness in it.”  The text proceeds to illustrate how the new principles and processes worked, and goes on and on about much of it while richly illustrating the story of Mr. Jiang including a good section of chapters on early life and political formation.  And that’s not all.    

2013 Blog Article - Wall Street Journal.

re - edited 09/28/2013.