Thursday, October 31, 2013

A New Book from Mr. Alan Greenspan - A Continued Dialogue with Young People Everywhere.

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In his latest text as published for the commonweal (click here for "New York Times" review,) Mr. Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve System in the U.S., notably under the great national economic boom that took place during the years mostly of the Clinton presidency, talks about his various points of view on the new economy and his old metier - forecasting.  In a radio interview published over PBS airwaves a few days ago, he spoke about the major themes in his latest book including the "new" economy in the U.S., the presently (from decades ago) applicable economic theories of Joseph Schumpeter (with which the writer here does not overall agree as to their current popular and trumpeted application to current U.S. and international economic climes,) and the salient topics of things like the aging of the principal working population in the U.S. right now and productivity of the workforce here.  He also discussed somewhat and in quite slow and clear language the issues of Medicare, unemployment and the federal budget.  With respect to this, it might be necessary to recall his previous work in a 2007 publication, The Age of Turbulence, of which the following:

a.  His brief account of living in New York, his training and how he became involved in policy - making, industry, and banking, etc., as an economist and consultant, and then as an official.
b.  The "New World" of economics and self - correcting character of the U.S. capitalist system; the nature of the challenges of the nebulous character of world commerce and economics today and its related changes vis - a - vis the past.
c.  The end of the Cold War as a continuing salient issue in economics and its effects, including the 1998 Russian financial crisis, the currency crises in Asia during the late 1990's, and the movement of the national economy in PRC from a non - market economy to a managed one.  One might also note the related effects of the end of the Cold War on developing countries everywhere.  One also needs remember with respect to these the budgetary surplus in the U.S. at the time that was so un - characteristic of any federal regime here in years (since 1969,) and that in 1998 petroleum sold at one time as low as $ 11 per barrel.  Note as well Wall Street considerations at that time, including the default and failure of Long Term Capital Management.
d.  The keystones of "Clintonomics" as emphasizing competitive markets and the rule of law in addition to other themes including entrepreneurship and business optimism.
e.  Recent history of the development and primacy of applied mathematics and statistics to the social sciences and their related acceptance and greater use in the various economics clubs of the world to which Mr. Greenspan belonged and belongs.
f.  Continued importance, especially in view of concerns for global climate, of the study of efficiency, technology, environment friendliness and labor issues in heavy industry.
g.  Recent history of interest rates and FOMC conduct.
h.  NAFTA and other trade agreements with near countries, and trade agreements and the flux in economic and political relations with the great powers.
i.  The arrival of the internet / world wide web and the invocation and an applicable interpretation of Schumpter's theories of "creative destruction."
j.  The stock market boom during the 1990's and into the 2000's.
k.  The overall and pervading mood of uncertainty in the "New World Economy" at present and dangers of inflation, the collapse of Social Security in the U.S., possibly the dangerous collapse of the social net in the U.S. in the future as a result of gaffes by officials, the promise of slower future economic growth and continued and more acute and unnecessary legalism and litigiousness of American society.
l.  Increasing dangers of increased populism in American politics and policy - making and the dangers of current economic policies in inviting more deficit spending, inflation and currency devaluation.
m.  The renewed importance of international financial centers such as London and others, and the necessity of nations to improve their employment situations and the country's social net.

In the details and in your reading of the 2007 Greenspan text, there is yet another world of topics, themes, items and issues to read of that affect your and everyone's finances and standard of living, employment situation and other features of living in the U.S. and what it means to be American.  Mr. Greenspan probably reluctantly repeats some of this message in his new book as in the last one his voice might not have been heard in important spheres.  The 2007 text as examining the topics above as well as other very urgent and important ones affecting urban and country settings in the U.S. right now, in background and actual perusal make excellent material for what must be his outstanding new book.

Another Way to Look at China's Growth Besides Just from "Retail."

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While it is obviously true P.R.C. produces a good amount of the world’s manufactured goods, and a good percentage overall of those are produced not only in P.R.C., but have a history of increasing importance in such places as Singapore, the Pacific island countries, Australia, Japan, T’ai wan, South Korea and the region of Southeast Asia and South Asia – the lot of them.  But what makes P.R.C. so important in its own right, with still its relatively low standard of living outside the urban centers after all these years, as a producer and exporter of goods to the U.S. and Western Europe and other presumably wealthy parts of the world?  While P.R.C. holds maybe a little over a trillion U.S. dollars in the bills, notes and bonds issued by the U.S., it also has a very large population, now much over the billion threshold as reached some time ago.  This means P.R.C. indirectly has financed its economic scale and demographic scope through making the decision some time ago to develop major business and commercial ties with the U.S. – the post – Cold War unipolar superpower.  Also, while for P.R.C. as a country from the Third World bounding over into the First World to the extent it fulfills its political and economic mission of transition from a country emphasizing industrialization and renewed centrism overall, there are a small number of major inputs that contribute to the future economic prospects of the country; not of the P.R.C. administration, but of the economic activity in the country apart from government, including continuing to invest at least some of its current account surplus (not all can do that), conducting more reasonable and goal – oriented what we would call open market operations, increasing the scope of the social net at home, especially for aging workers; getting beyond the fluff of places like Shang hai and Bei jing to manage better its intake of foreign direct investment, and then under the guise of what it calls “Chinese characteristics” and a newer doctrine of its administration under the “Represents”, carrying on the business of actively managing its industrial and commercial base, and then economy overall without the ordinary corruption and parasitism that characterizes some growing economies these days. 

P.R.C. might indeed show a much greater percentage G.N.P. growth than, mention France at this point that might be one percent.  The recent estimates of Chinese economists about the sustained growth over eight or nine percent gross of that country’s economy as a whole does take into account the reports and numbers that are submitted to the center, though it does not quantify the actual numbers of what must be the shadow economy in the country that might be yet another significant source of growth, however illicit, to again enrich those who are merchandising unofficial stoves, televisions, handbags, and other goods and contraband at this point.  In the former soviet union, for example, during glasnost, the shadow economy might have been as great as forty percent of the Russian gross national product at that point, and this gives reason for much of the exclusive and private wealth the oligarchs concentrated to themselves at the time (Boris Yeltsin is criticized for having allowed this and even encouraged it though future studies will probably show this vicious process was a Russian version of hastening the arrival of capitalism in the country.)  The grey economy in P.R.C. at this point might be greater than that in Russia in gross terms because in China right now there are more people who need things, especially the aging worker population, and who have ways of raising the cash out of their life’s savings and so forth to put into the consumer economy – this is and has been a source of unofficial and substantive internal commercial growth for their economy since the time of Deng Xiao ping, and the thinking behind it as it touched upon the issues of young people there could have touched off some of the issues of 1989 that resulted in the administrations reactionary measures at the time.  Rest assured that China’s economy being the way it is, and with room to grow in the area of consumer and durable goods, the grey economy has given the country a somewhat easy and unofficial way to deliver on its economic promises internally over the years.  Time will tell if this and related activities actually enriches anyone and by whom it will be easy to see who the responsible people are for it, be they resellers, middlemen, or some type of ‘oligarch’ as has arisen in their neighbor to the West. 

While the Chinese over the years, not unlike the former U.S.S.R., have chased bad investments in the name of entrepreneurship that sometimes have caused financial and other reorganisations, it is possible that the current limits to growth as a macroeconomic issue will call for less official trade inside the country due to slack in world consumerism and in its financial markets as well.  This will be a good thing for anyone who has a lousy economy and who’s lending things to finance growth, and it might be difficult for example, for France in the next few years to have G.N.P. growth that even equals its inflation rate; so France might want to return to the financial well in P.R.C. consistently as long as China continues to purchase its bonds and export goods there.  Remember that debt is not property nor is it a proxy for property and those in the French “patrimoine” stand in line as stakeholders in any problem with its bonds before the debtholders do.  The rights of debtors and bondholders when in dispute can get quite technical, though it is clear that no matter how much of France’s debt bought by the Chinese, France will always be free of any specious claims on its assets or national treasures due to the character of its own open market operations and its international rights as a debtor.  Outside the P.R.C., international trade rules, and this despite the slackening of some trade at this point in recent reports, maintain the status quo as far as practices and the production of goods and services in exchange for moneys are concerned.  P.R.C. might be greatly concerned by slackening trade as it’s a major producer of goods at this point, but trumpeting the day – to – day problems of this is a way of calling undue attention to oneself, and while there are ups and downs every day, one has to wonder at the same time what the daily figures are highlighted for unless there are some practices driving the trade and commerce from P.R.C. that are questionable.  Ordinary economic systems, capitalism being one of them, have very wisely built in features to absorb the everyday chaos of the marketplace and those angered or upset by ordinary ups and downs might be judged to not being able to see beyond their noses.  These days, so many merchants and traders everywhere are concerned with quick scoring due to an incorrect sensation that’s how money is made these days – by a kind of high – pressure cooker tactics – based business climate.  This is only so true as ordinary people want a basic standard of living, to have a place on the food chain and the like – this is the same in every country with wise leaders or fools alike at the helm.  The current concerns about China as an economic engine that’s slackening are frightful to “Chicken Little” and because most of the world has market – psychology – based trade these days (they count what’s in their pocket books at the end of the day and decide if they’ve fared well or poorly, etc.,) it’s important that daily and monthly indicators (markets and CPI aside, maybe) be given time to return to their general patterns. 

Related Becker – Posner Blog postings on the subject.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Monsoon / Cyclone Season Again.

About cyclones from Japan meteorological site - click here.

Latest cyclone news from Bloomberg.

"IRIN" news about cyclones.

About monsoons / cyclones - click here.

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In Reaction to The Puppetry: They Wanted The U.S. of A.

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Anna Politkovskaya.

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Again - Memories of October 1962.

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Many people do remember this time in 1962 as one of mutual concern, not just among those in the same town, but between the different members of the "global village," and today even among those having read just historical accounts.  See this link for subject matter resources and previous blog entry from last year.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

More on The NSU Trial in Germany.

That this particular legal proceeding is the most significant dealing with the far - right in Germany in years, and has been cause for great concern within FRG itself, it is not a huge subject of discussion nor real awareness outside that cultural and territorial surrounding.  The crimes allegedly associated with the NSU ("National Socialist Underground") in their relative insignificance and in their overall morbidity are cause for concern not just in Germany, but in any country or region where there are individuals who are part of a system and who take advantage of this for their own ends or in order to otherwise and inappropriately take part in the sinister and dark, immorally punishing and even criminal world in order to bring attention to their personal politics.  It is perhaps true, and there might even be a history of the NSU and related parties, that politically oriented people within a system like the democratic FRG, though they are not reasonably able to have a majority voice as, i.e., the politics of the nazis are disproven everywhere, resort to various tactics and vile and violent acts as the NSU apparently has.  This is symptom of the cultural psychosis of anyone or any group condoning the crime of assassination and elimination of people as an allowable act under the circumstances the NSU might present to anyone.

In knowing in any detail about the mission of the NSU, it might be difficult to consider loving one's neighbor as oneself, inasmuch as one is not able even a little to trust one's neighbor.  In the free country of the FRG, an excellent place, even the state chancellor is challenged when attempting to reply to questions and comments about the situation in the former Eastern Germany and its effects on people today, more specifically in the area of origin for the NSU that has been on the fringes socially, culturally, economically and in many other ways since the downfall of communism in 1989 - 1990.  The political environment in the area of origin for the NSU is characteristically rife with ideas and attitudes that leave people grasping at straws about their own lives and in all quite angry and frustrated with things in the world, especially concerning influences that are non - German or that are from the outside.  Remember if one judges the NSU outside of this particular proceeding that one can not just lay one's hands, proverbially, metaphorically nor otherwise on such problems as a way of resolving them and their effects.  The circumstances of any showing of anti - Semitism or like idea today, in the world as we now have it with the related extremely mortal conflicts behind us, are quite special and individualized and despite the reality of this subculture of anger and awfully willful violence, there is through the humaneness with which the defendant at trial is treated in the Münich Higher Regional Court and that city's Stadelheim prison a comprehension of the conflict(s) people have experienced since the defeat of communism and official laying - to - rest of many far right influences in Germany itself.  The case of Germany with respect to such issues is in itself extremely specific and special, and requires considerable and reasonable study in order to have any level of understanding of it.  A good number of the answers to dilemmas proposed by the Bäder Meinhof in days gone by and the NSU today are the internal affairs of the country itself; to insist otherwise and to broadly apply these are nonsense and in denial of the watchful and ordinary conscience.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10263998/German-neo-Nazi-trial-gives-insight-into-secret-life-of-Beate-Zschape.html - hyperlink to "Telegraph" (U.K.) article, September 2013.